Report predicts Florida’s economic growth will level off in coming years

(The Center Square) — A new report on the health of Florida’s economy was released this week and shows the Sunshine State will likely continue to grow for the foreseeable future.

Florida TaxWatch released the Florida Economic Forecast 2023 – 2028 on Thursday. The forecast examines the sustainability of Florida’s growing economy, which has reached almost $1.5 trillion, the 14th largest in the world.

Florida TaxWatch used data on Florida’s population, net migration, unemployment rate, personal income per capita, and gross domestic product to project future economic conditions, as provided by the Regional Economic Consulting Group, a research-based consulting firm.

Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro said in a statement that Florida’s success is directly due to state leaders and smart fiscal policies.

“Currently, Florida’s economic growth continues to outpace other states across the nation, and we also boast the 14th largest economy in the world… but the question remains: Is it sustainable over the next several years?” Calabro said. “Florida TaxWatch is proud to offer this report to help answer that question, inform additional research, and plan for the Sunshine State’s bright future.”

Data shows that Florida’s population will grow by at least 1.4 million residents by 2028, but the number of people moving to the Sunshine State will slowly decrease.

The current 1.3% growth rate will drop 1.1% by the end of 2028 as residents begin moving out of Florida, citing increased cost of living, insurance, severe weather events and heavy traffic.

The forecast noted that the number of employed Floridians is projected to increase from 9.8 million to 10.4 million by 2028. However, the unemployment rate is also forecast to increase from 2.8% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2026 before improving slightly and dropping to 4.2% in 2028.

According to the report, Florida’s GDP growth rate in 2023 was 4.6%. However, this is projected to slow to 1.6% in 2025 and increase again to 1.9% in 2027 and 2028. Inflation is also projected to decrease over the next few years.

Florida tourism is predicted to increase through 2028. It brings in around $124 billion, supports over 1.3 million jobs, and generates $73 billion in employee wages.