Although the hurricane season runs until November 30, October can still have a significant risk for hurricane strikes, especially across Florida.
But conditions over the next several weeks look less favorable for tropical cyclone impacts in the Gulf of Mexico or around Florida right through the middle of October, a historical breeding hotspot for late-season activity.
A strong cold front this weekend will help to cool local water temperatures and the upper winds will cause too much shear across the Gulf and Florida to harbor any tropical development.
After Tropical Storm Philippe heads north toward Canada, models show no activity through the middle of October which gets us past a vulnerable part of the month for Florida hurricane strikes.
During October, tropical storms and hurricanes tend to develop away from favored eastern Atlantic regions of August and September. Hurricane tracks shift a focus westward toward the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and along the East Coast.
It can get busy in autumn as frequent southern advancing cold fronts often turn hurricanes northward into the Sunshine State.
Since 1950 the total number of October hurricanes hitting the United States was 19 of which 10 struck Florida. The others primarily targeted Louisiana and the Southeast.
Notable October hurricanes like Michael, an extremely rare Category 5 U.S. landfall in the Florida Panhandle in 2018, and Hurricane Sandy that tracked offshore Florida in late-October 2012, pushed ashore along the New Jersey coast as a Superstorm.
Although Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Florida last year on November 10, U.S. hurricane landfalls are extremely rare, with just four documented.
Nicole was the only U.S. landfall in November since Kate struck the Panhandle in 1985.
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