Two systems to keep an eye on in the Tropical Atlantic. If you are thinking, it is too early for storms to form so close and so early in the season you would be correct. Above normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic and the lack of shear normally present will allow storms to form and grow.
Tropical Depression #3 is in an area where conditions are conducive for strengthening over the next few days. Much warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the depression’s path, along with plentiful mid-level moisture and light shear will promote strengthening through midweek. Models are pointing to increasing wind shear by day 3 in response to an upper-level trough.
The current NHC forecast shows the intensity leveling off at the end of the forecast period. This intensity forecast is also more uncertain due to the differences in the models.
System two is a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are favorable for development of this system and a tropical depression could form in the next couple of days. The system is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.