Colorado State forecasters still calling for above-average hurricane season

Forecasters at Colorado State University continue to call for an above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic.

The forecast update, which was issued Thursday, remains consistent with an earlier update in early July.

No Changes to the Forecast

The forecast remains at 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

These were the exact same numbers issued back on July 6.

The average in the Atlantic basin is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

It should be noted the Atlantic has already seen four named storms and one unnamed subtropical storm, so forecasters are calling for 13 additional storms.

Don also became a hurricane in July, so the forecast calls for eight additional hurricanes.

El Nino vs. Warm Water

The main battle this hurricane season still looks to be El Nino conditions versus very warm water in the tropical Atlantic.

El Nino continues to intensify in the Pacific, and will almost certainly continue for the remainder of the 2023 hurricane season.

El Nino conditions change wind patterns, which bring additional wind shear to the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. This wind shear helps reduce the frequency of tropical systems.

Quite often, El Nino creates average to below-average hurricane seasons.

Forecasters also note the record to near-record water temperatures across much of the Atlantic.

Warm water is fuel for developing tropical systems and allows them to intensify further.

Colorado St. meteorologists predict the warm water will likely be the bigger factor, creating an above-average season.

Quiet Right Now

The Atlantic basin remains very quiet.

No major activity is expected in the Gulf, the Caribbean and the open waters of the Atlantic over the next seven days.

August is the month that conditions become much more favorable for development, and activity often increases by the end of the month.

The peak of hurricane season is on its way, and Colorado State meteorologists continue to forecast an above-average season in the coming months.

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